TrendLab

A tool to explore how the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on the economy may affect short- and long-term travel behavior, traffic levels, and transit use.

Based on your predictions, we think VMT per capita and transit ridership per capita will change as shown above. The table to the right indicates the net effect of your predictions (all values are shown as a percentage of 2019 levels).

Return to: Tigard's Transportation System Plan

	2020	2021	2025	2030
VMT Per Capita	45%	0%	0%	0%
Transit Trips Per Capita	27%	0%	0%	0%

Future Transportation Needs Forecasting

The four factors below help transportation planners anticipate future travel needs of the community. This exercise lets you make your own predictions about future travel in Tigard based on the impacts of COVID-19 and the related economic uncertainty.

Make your predictions about the topics below to produce a forecast of how levels of driving (as measured in vehicle miles of travel, or VMT for short) and transit ridership will change in three future years: 2021, 2025 and 2030.

Economic Consequences

Unemployment

Prior to March 2020, US unemployment was 4%. By mid-May 2020, unemployment reached 15%. For comparison, unemployment was 25% during the Great Depression and 10% during the 2008 recession. Based on this information, make a prediction about unemployment rates in 2021, 2025, and 2030.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Unemployment rate returns to pre-pandemic levels (4%)
			Unemployment rate returns to half way back to pre-pandemic levels (9%)
			Unemployment remains at 15%
			COVID-19 takes a long-term toll on unemployment (25%)

Household Income

Since COVID-19, roughly half of US households have experienced a decrease in income, with personal income dropping about 3% in March 2020 alone. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future household income.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Average incomes return to pre-COVID levels
			Average incomes continue to fall (5% below pre-COVID levels)
			Average incomes continue to greatly fall (10% below pre-COVID levels)

Fuel Prices and Auto Costs

On average fuel prices have been dropping. About 8% from July to December 2019, and another 27% between January and April 2020. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future fuel prices and auto costs.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Fuel prices will remain 15% below pre-COVID levels
			Fuel prices will return to pre-COVID levels
			Fuel prices will return to pre-COVID levels, but auto costs will increase due to other costs such as parking and tolls

Government and Business Response

Land Use

With concerns about COVID-19, people may choose to move away from close city living and instead choose lower density suburbs, avoiding apartments and condos. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future land uses.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			There will be a return to pre-COVID preferences for urban locations and amenities
			Some community members and businesses shift to more suburban locations
			Many community members and businesses shift to more suburban locations

Demand and Capacity

Businesses may start offering incentives for cars or ride-hailing (Uber/Lyft-type services) for employee comfort and safety. While transit operators may reduce their maximum occupancy to provide physical distancing among passengers. This could result in a shift in travel from high-occupancy modes (bus, ride sharing, etc.) to lower-occupancy modes (single occupancy cars). Based on the following information, make a prediction about future travel demand and capacity.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Businesses and individuals return to pre-COVID travel incentives and behavior
			Transit agencies will need to deploy more vehicles to achieve lower occupancy while meeting needs
			Employers will incentivize solo driving and ride-hailing for employee comfort and safety

Telecommuting and Work-From-Home

Businesses are beginning to suggest that they will not bring employees back to physical offices for a while and for many, telecommuting is a viable way to conduct business. Based on the following information, make a prediction about the future of telecommuting.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			100% of the workforce return to their places of work on a daily basis
			80% of the workforce return to their places of work on a daily basis
			60% of the workforce return to their places of work on a daily basis
			40% of the workforce return to their places of work on a daily basis

Remote Learning

Many schools and universities are not planning to reopen until early 2021, and even those who do may chose a hybrid model of remote learning and in-school learning to provide sufficient social distancing. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future of remote learning.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			In-school learning returns to pre-COVID levels
			In-school learning attendance returns to 80% of pre-COVID levels
			In-school learning attendance returns to 50% of pre-COVID levels

Federal Aid

A critical unknown for most cities and transportation agencies is whether an additional stimulus package will be made available to help fund services and projects that were in place or planned in 2019. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future Federal Aid.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Federal aid will allow transportation agencies and cities to complete planned pre-COVID projects.
			Federal aid will only allow for about 80% of the projects planned pre-COVID.
			Federal aid will not be sufficient to aid planned projects and planned improvements will not be realized

Transit and Multimodal Measures

Bicycle and Pedestrian Environments

The pandemic has seen an increase in the number of city streets designated for pedestrian and bicycle use in some cities. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future bicycle and pedestrian environments.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Newly formed pedestrian streets will revert to their original use post-COVID
			Communities will significantly expand their pedestrian and bicycle networks
			Walking and biking will stay as a preferred form of travel

Bikeshare and Micromobility

Bikeshare and scooter companies may continue to consolidate and adjust their business models as an alternative to transit for short-distance travel. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future bikeshare and micromobility services.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Bikeshare and scooter companies return to pre-COVID popularity
			Personal ownership of e-bikes and scooters becomes an alternative to transit for many
			Bike and scooter use increases 20% over pre-pandemic levels

Transit Service

Some transit agencies may attempt to return to their pre-COVID operating frequencies and fares. In other cases, there may be long term service reductions and/or fare increases. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future of transit service.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			There are major reductions in transit service levels/increased fares
			There are minor reductions in transit service levels/increased fares
			Transit service returns to pre-COVID levels and fares
			Transit service returns to pre-COVID levels and agencies restructure routes to be more demand responsive

Traveler and Consumer Behavior

Vehicle Ownership and Ride Hailing

Concerns about shared vehicles and transit crowding could increase auto ownership and lead to greater preference for ride hailing over transit in urban settings. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future of vehicle ownership and ride hailing.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Auto ownership and ride hailing will increase due to fears of shared modes of travel
			Use of transit will resume at pre-COVID levels
			Use of transit will resume, but at lower occupancy to provide adequate social distancing

Goods and Services Delivery

There has been an increases in home deliveries instead of usual demand of deliveries to office buildings, and other establishments. As the economy recovers, these patterns may return to pre-COVID levels, but some in-person shopping may be permanently replaced by home deliveries. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future of goods and service delivery.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Goods deliveries return to their pre-COVID patterns
			Delivery volumes remain low for office buildings and other establishments as places remain closed
			Home deliveries replace 15% of shopping trips
			Home deliveries replace 30% of shopping trips

Social Networking and In-Person Interaction

Online interactions have replaced personal visits for shopping, entertainment, and other forms social interaction, and the largest group events such as sports and theaters may continue to provide streaming access before they reopen for large crowds. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future of in-person social interaction.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			In-person interactions return to pre-COVID levels
			Due to improved virtual communication and the convenience of staying at home, in-person interactions do not return to more than 90% of pre-COVID levels
			Due to improved virtual communication and the convenience of staying at home, in-person interactions do not return to more than 80% of pre-COVID levels

Consumer Confidence and Spending

Consumer spending often declines during periods of economic shock. Retail sales dropped 16% between March and April 2020, twice as much as they dropped during the 2008 recession. Based on the following information, make a prediction about future consumer spending.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Consumer confidence, disposable income and retail sales return to pre-COVID levels
			Retail sales don't return to more than 75% of pre-COVID levels
			Retail sales don't return to more than 50% of pre-COVID levels

Discretionary Travel

As some states have begun reopening their economies, the new normal may show lower levels of traveling due to increased telecommuting, remote learning, and social telecommunications; or higher levels of traveling as more people move to remote locations or choose solo travel.

2021	2025	2030	Prediction
			Road congestion remains 20% below pre-COVID levels
			Road congestion remains 10% below pre-COVID levels
			Road congestion returns to pre-COVID levels